South Korea’s Ambitious INDC to Lessen Emissions in 2030
South Korea is among the G20 nations to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for 2030, pledging to lessen 37% of its current carbon intensity of 430 tCO2/$m. It has the same approach as Mexico, using a scenario instead of absolute emission as a baseline. However, it could make things complicated.
INDCs are usually complex - with varied target and base years as well as baselines. It's quite strange that most countries create scenarios that look good with their targets. As a result, comparisons are difficult to make. This is the reason Lima has failed to come up with a consistent approach.
It should be noted that South Korea's carbon intensity since 2000 has lessened by 0.9% (the average for G20 nations) every year. According to the Low Carbon Economy Index (LCEI) model, the figure can be anticipated from usual improvements on energy efficiency. If the trend continues, its carbon intensity by 2030 will decrease to 371 tCO2/$m. But if South Korea wants to achieve its goal, it has to reach 206 tCO2/$m - EU's carbon intensity in 2014 - after 15 years.
This means a 4.5-percent decrease each year, assuming that it reaches 2.9% economic growth within 15 years. Then again, it's a significant increase compared to the recent 0.9%.
The nation uses a scenario wherein emissions keep on rising until 2030, and it intends to achieve lower intensity than what LCEI has indicated - 850.6 million tons. On the other hand, South Korea's baselines are the following:
- Target at 14.7%, reducing emission to 726 million tons
- Target at 19.2%, reducing emission to 688 million tons
- Target at 25.7%, reducing emission to 632 million tons
- Target at 31.3%, reducing emission to 585 million tons